Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 1185 ROC 06:38 → JFK 08:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 485 ROC 14:04 → JFK 15:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 1185 JetBlue Flight history →	ROC 06:38	JFK 08:00	9%	4%	1.2%	89%
B6 485 JetBlue Flight history →	ROC 14:04	JFK 15:30	16%	8%	1.1%	83%
DL 5318 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 05:30	JFK 06:59	10%	6%	6.6%	90%
DL 5330 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 11:33	JFK 12:59	19%	7%	2.7%	81%
DL 5289 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 16:28	JFK 17:59	28%	16%	7.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON