tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 31–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 1043 JetBlue Flight history → ROC 15:17 MCO 18:12 31% 13% 9.4% 74%
WN 2877 Southwest Flight history → ROC 16:45 MCO 19:35 35% 14% 10.5% 50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ROC 06:15 → BWI 07:25WN 4680 2h 05m Baltimore BWI 09:30 → MCO 11:50WN 3658 5h 35m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → ROC 05:00 → CLT 06:54AA 1058 3h 15m Charlotte CLT 10:09 → MCO 11:57AA 2074 6h 57m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → ROC 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 1200 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658 4h 57m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → ROC 06:05 → BOS 07:35AA 4806 · flown by Republic 1h 25m Boston BOS 09:00 → MCO 12:16AA 2735 6h 11m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → ROC 05:00 → ORD 05:54AA 4247 · flown by Envoy 1h 06m Chicago ORD 07:00 → MCO 10:48AA 2067 5h 48m 95% 72%
UnitedDetails → ROC 06:00 → EWR 07:20UA 3626 · flown by Republic 2h 41m Newark EWR 10:01 → MCO 12:54UA 1739 6h 54m 99% 70%
UnitedDetails → ROC 06:20 → ORD 07:28UA 1778 1h 44m Chicago ORD 09:12 → MCO 13:13UA 1643 6h 53m 96% 70%
AmericanDetails → ROC 05:33 → DCA 06:59AA 5351 · flown by PSA 46m Washington DCA 07:45 → MCO 10:14AA 3273 4h 41m 86% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ROC 17:48 → DTW 19:15DL 5231 · flown by Endeavor 1h 43m Detroit DTW 20:58 → MCO 23:34DL 1123 5h 46m 72% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON