Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3460 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3460 Southwest Flight history →	ROC 08:20	MDW 09:05	10%	2%	0.8%	90%
WN 2693 Southwest Flight history →	ROC 19:35	MDW 20:25	28%	7%	0.8%	50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Rochester). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ROC 06:15 → BWI 07:25WN 4680	2h 10m Baltimore	BWI 09:35 → MDW 10:35WN 4217	5h 20m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	ROC 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 1200	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 56m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	ROC 12:55 → BWI 14:10WN 3458	1h 55m Baltimore	BWI 16:05 → MDW 17:10WN 997	5h 15m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	ROC 09:55 → DTW 11:18DL 5240 · flown by Endeavor	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	3h 51m	92%	74%
Southwest Details →	ROC 17:50 → BWI 19:10WN 4354	1h 45m Baltimore	BWI 20:55 → MDW 22:00WN 999	5h 10m	93%	69%
Delta Details →	ROC 06:16 → DTW 07:34DL 1752	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor	3h 58m	93%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON