Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4247 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 4247 ROC 05:00 → ORD 05:54 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 99% on time Riskiest UA 2059 ROC 17:52 → ORD 19:00 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4247 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ROC 05:00	ORD 05:54	7%	3%	1.2%	99%
UA 3507 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ROC 10:42	ORD 11:53	8%	3%	1.2%	92%
UA 1778 United Flight history →	ROC 06:20	ORD 07:28	9%	4%	0.8%	81%
UA 3494 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ROC 12:25	ORD 13:38	12%	4%	1.1%	87%
AA 3775 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ROC 11:30	ORD 12:34	16%	4%	1.1%	90%
AA 6438 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ROC 20:42	ORD 22:00	19%	11%	2.1%	61%
UA 2059 United Flight history →	ROC 17:52	ORD 19:00	25%	10%	0.7%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON