tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3461 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3461 Southwest Flight history → RSW 09:30 BNA 10:30 9% 3% 4.4% 92%
WN 3462 Southwest Flight history → RSW 21:05 BNA 22:10 26% 10% 6.3% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41DL 3069 4h 06m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 45m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 06:05 → BWI 08:30WN 3463 1h 15m Baltimore BWI 09:45 → BNA 10:35WN 487 5h 30m 97% 85%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 05:55 → STL 07:25WN 3471 4h 00m St Louis STL 11:25 → BNA 12:35WN 1110 7h 40m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → RSW 07:00 → IAH 08:33UA 2773 3h 22m Houston IAH 11:55 → BNA 14:02UA 1318 8h 02m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → RSW 07:00 → ORD 09:23UA 1554 1h 14m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 6h 29m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → RSW 06:02 → EWR 08:59UA 2455 1h 56m Newark EWR 10:55 → BNA 12:18UA 1616 7h 16m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:15 → ORD 08:33AA 803 1h 56m Chicago ORD 10:29 → BNA 12:06AA 1650 6h 51m 100% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RSW 12:15 → EWR 15:12UA 2624 53m Newark EWR 16:05 → BNA 17:46UA 2454 6h 31m 71% 53%
DeltaDetails → RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559 50m Detroit DTW 21:35 → BNA 22:15DL 2126 5h 26m 67% 51%
AmericanDetails → RSW 12:06 → PHL 14:54AA 2445 47m Philadelphia PHL 15:41 → BNA 17:01AA 1505 5h 55m 49% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON