Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2373 at 10:41 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 2373 RSW 10:41 → BOS 13:59 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 2066 RSW 20:43 → BOS 23:56 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2373 Delta Flight history →	RSW 10:41	BOS 13:59	15%	6%	4.7%	84%
B6 266 JetBlue Flight history →	RSW 11:02	BOS 14:19	31%	12%	5.5%	68%
B6 2066 JetBlue Flight history →	RSW 20:43	BOS 23:56	39%	19%	6.4%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON