tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via BWI, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Buffalo on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → RSW 06:05 → BWI 08:30WN 3463 2h 20m Baltimore BWI 10:50 → BUF 12:05WN 762 6h 00m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 05:10 → MDW 07:00WN 1243 55m Chicago MDW 07:55 → BUF 10:25WN 758 5h 15m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 36m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:22 → CLT 08:20AA 1097 2h 46m Charlotte CLT 11:06 → BUF 12:51AA 1616 6h 29m 98% 81%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 09:30 → BNA 10:30WN 3461 2h 45m Nashville BNA 13:15 → BUF 16:00WN 4728 6h 30m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 5h 15m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559 2h 05m Detroit DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978 6h 09m 94% 72%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:55 → BUF 15:52AA 1615 9h 51m 100% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON