Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 464 at 12:59 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 464 RSW 12:59 → CLE 15:36 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 1545 RSW 20:09 → CLE 22:54 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 464 United Flight history →	RSW 12:59	CLE 15:36	15%	10%	7.5%	88%
F9 2715 Frontier Flight history →	RSW 11:38	CLE 14:26	24%	11%	5.8%	81%
F9 1545 Frontier Flight history →	RSW 20:09	CLE 22:54	34%	15%	8.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON