Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1097 at 06:22 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1097 RSW 06:22 → CLT 08:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 2444 RSW 15:59 → CLT 18:05 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1097 American Flight history →	RSW 06:22	CLT 08:20	6%	2%	4.2%	96%
AA 2427 American Flight history →	RSW 10:00	CLT 12:01	13%	4%	5.2%	79%
AA 2442 American Flight history →	RSW 19:41	CLT 21:45	25%	9%	8.2%	74%
AA 2444 American Flight history →	RSW 15:59	CLT 18:05	25%	11%	8.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON