tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3466 at 13:20, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3466 Southwest Flight history → RSW 13:20 CMH 15:45 25% 14% 7.9% 64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → RSW 05:55 → STL 07:25WN 3471 2h 30m St Louis STL 09:55 → CMH 12:15WN 3902 6h 20m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 06:05 → BWI 08:30WN 3463 2h 15m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → CMH 12:10WN 4524 6h 05m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → RSW 07:00 → ORD 09:23UA 1554 3h 25m Chicago ORD 12:48 → CMH 15:28UA 3554 · flown by Republic 8h 28m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → RSW 06:02 → EWR 08:59UA 2455 1h 39m Newark EWR 10:38 → CMH 12:33UA 3638 · flown by Republic 6h 31m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522 6h 13m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750 6h 53m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 14:25 → CMH 15:59DL 2200 5h 11m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → RSW 12:28 → ORD 14:53UA 2494 2h 52m Chicago ORD 17:45 → CMH 20:24UA 3674 · flown by Republic 7h 56m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RSW 17:24 → ORD 19:54AA 2437 1h 01m Chicago ORD 20:55 → CMH 23:33AA 4445 · flown by Republic 6h 09m 67% 53%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 18:55 → BWI 21:30WN 4294 55m Baltimore BWI 22:25 → CMH 23:55WN 4157 5h 00m 67% 46%
AmericanDetails → RSW 12:06 → PHL 14:54AA 2445 51m Philadelphia PHL 15:45 → CMH 17:31AA 2397 5h 25m 58% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON