tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2448 American Flight history → RSW 14:05 DCA 16:37 26% 12% 12.0% 70%
AA 2454 American Flight history → RSW 17:26 DCA 20:00 29% 13% 8.1% 66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → RSW 05:10 → MDW 07:00WN 1243 1h 15m Chicago MDW 08:15 → DCA 11:10WN 2569 6h 00m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 05:55 → STL 07:25WN 3471 1h 05m St Louis STL 08:30 → DCA 11:25WN 3905 5h 30m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:15 → ORD 08:33AA 803 2h 12m Chicago ORD 10:45 → DCA 13:59AA 4809 · flown by Republic 7h 44m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → RSW 07:00 → IAH 08:33UA 2773 1h 14m Houston IAH 09:47 → DCA 13:57UA 2670 6h 57m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 52m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → RSW 07:00 → ORD 09:23UA 1554 1h 52m Chicago ORD 11:15 → DCA 14:22UA 2668 7h 22m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → RSW 07:00 → MSP 09:30DL 2219 55m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 6h 48m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:42DL 737 5h 57m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → RSW 17:10 → MDW 19:05WN 4120 1h 05m Chicago MDW 20:10 → DCA 23:05WN 1172 5h 55m 74% 52%
AmericanDetails → RSW 17:24 → ORD 19:54AA 2437 1h 01m Chicago ORD 20:55 → DCA 23:59AA 1187 6h 35m 67% 47%
AmericanDetails → RSW 14:25 → DFW 16:26AA 2438 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:15 → DCA 21:31AA 472 7h 06m 62% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON