Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1739 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1739 RSW 06:25 → DEN 08:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1354 RSW 15:56 → DEN 18:25 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1739 Southwest Flight history →	RSW 06:25	DEN 08:20	5%	1%	3.3%	92%
UA 318 United Flight history →	RSW 08:01	DEN 10:30	6%	2%	3.9%	98%
UA 1354 United Flight history →	RSW 15:56	DEN 18:25	22%	8%	5.1%	91%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	RSW 06:15 → MCO 07:15WN 4872	55m Orlando	MCO 08:10 → DEN 10:00WN 2629	5h 45m	98%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON