tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1797 Delta Flight history → RSW 12:36 DTW 15:28 19% 9% 6.7% 75%
DL 2559 Delta Flight history → RSW 17:49 DTW 20:45 25% 11% 7.0% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → RSW 05:55 → STL 07:25WN 3471 2h 30m St Louis STL 09:55 → DTW 12:25WN 4177 6h 30m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → RSW 07:00 → IAH 08:33UA 2773 1h 12m Houston IAH 09:45 → DTW 13:42UA 4064 · flown by Mesa 6h 42m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → RSW 07:00 → MSP 09:30DL 2219 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → DTW 15:39DL 1519 8h 39m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 05:10 → MDW 07:00WN 1243 55m Chicago MDW 07:55 → DTW 10:05WN 1775 4h 55m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:15 → ORD 08:33AA 803 1h 57m Chicago ORD 10:30 → DTW 13:04AA 3498 · flown by Envoy 6h 49m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240 7h 21m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031 7h 39m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:22 → CLT 08:20AA 1097 2h 55m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → DTW 13:01AA 1781 6h 39m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RSW 16:39 → ORD 19:00UA 2832 47m Chicago ORD 19:47 → DTW 22:19UA 2426 5h 40m 65% 45%
AmericanDetails → RSW 17:26 → DCA 20:00AA 2454 59m Washington DCA 20:59 → DTW 22:43AA 5597 · flown by PSA 5h 17m 70% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON