tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 2054 at 11:59, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2054 United Flight history → RSW 11:59 IAD 14:30 13% 6% 4.9% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RSW 07:00 → ORD 09:23UA 1554 1h 44m Chicago ORD 11:07 → IAD 14:12UA 1869 7h 12m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 6h 02m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 7h 16m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:22 → CLT 08:20AA 1097 2h 45m Charlotte CLT 11:05 → IAD 12:38AA 5220 · flown by PSA 6h 16m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → RSW 06:02 → EWR 08:59UA 2455 1h 06m Newark EWR 10:05 → IAD 11:28UA 1691 5h 26m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 5h 58m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → RSW 12:28 → ORD 14:53UA 2494 3h 19m Chicago ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22UA 2202 8h 54m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → RSW 16:39 → ORD 19:00UA 2832 2h 40m Chicago ORD 21:40 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 2766 8h 06m 93% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559 53m Detroit DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest 5h 24m 69% 53%
AmericanDetails → RSW 11:50 → DFW 13:43AA 2428 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:36 → IAD 18:37AA 1904 6h 47m 74% 52%
UnitedDetails → RSW 18:30 → EWR 21:38UA 2601 52m Newark EWR 22:30 → IAD 23:55UA 2717 5h 25m 67% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON