tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2773 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2773 United Flight history → RSW 07:00 IAH 08:33 6% 3% 3.5% 100%
UA 2833 United Flight history → RSW 17:00 IAH 18:40 22% 11% 6.8% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RSW 07:00 → ORD 09:23UA 1554 3h 17m Chicago ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448 9h 39m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → RSW 15:56 → DEN 18:25UA 1354 2h 45m Denver DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253 9h 45m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → RSW 06:02 → EWR 08:59UA 2455 1h 54m Newark EWR 10:53 → IAH 13:38UA 556 8h 36m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → RSW 12:59 → CLE 15:36UA 464 3h 05m Cleveland CLE 18:41 → IAH 20:55UA 1645 8h 56m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 6h 39m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 48m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → RSW 07:00 → MSP 09:30DL 2219 54m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673 7h 14m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → RSW 11:59 → IAD 14:30UA 2054 3h 29m Dulles IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25UA 2217 9h 26m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RSW 11:50 → DFW 13:43AA 2428 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:33 → IAH 15:48AA 3583 · flown by Envoy 4h 58m 71% 54%
AmericanDetails → RSW 18:22 → DFW 20:24AA 2446 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209 5h 02m 60% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON