tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3467 at 16:20, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3467 Southwest Flight history → RSW 16:20 IND 18:50 28% 16% 5.5% 53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → RSW 06:05 → BWI 08:30WN 3463 2h 15m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → IND 12:30WN 960 6h 25m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 05:10 → MDW 07:00WN 1243 3h 00m Chicago MDW 10:00 → IND 12:05WN 3877 6h 55m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → RSW 07:00 → IAH 08:33UA 2773 3h 22m Houston IAH 11:55 → IND 15:25UA 1687 8h 25m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → RSW 06:02 → EWR 08:59UA 2455 2h 55m Newark EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic 8h 05m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → RSW 07:00 → ORD 09:23UA 1554 3h 24m Chicago ORD 12:47 → IND 15:03UA 3702 · flown by Republic 8h 03m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 7h 01m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → RSW 07:00 → MSP 09:30DL 2219 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910 8h 33m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → RSW 11:59 → IAD 14:30UA 2054 2h 53m Dulles IAD 17:23 → IND 19:16UA 3585 · flown by Republic 7h 17m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RSW 18:15 → MSP 20:50DL 402 50m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → IND 00:16 +1DL 674 6h 01m 70% 52%
AmericanDetails → RSW 17:24 → ORD 19:54AA 2437 53m Chicago ORD 20:47 → IND 23:06AA 4594 · flown by Republic 5h 42m 64% 50%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 18:55 → BWI 21:30WN 4294 55m Baltimore BWI 22:25 → IND 00:20 +1WN 4216 5h 25m 67% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON