Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 130 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day B6 130 RSW 06:01 → JFK 09:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 1530 RSW 12:06 → JFK 14:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 130 JetBlue Flight history →	RSW 06:01	JFK 09:00	7%	3%	5.6%	84%
DL 2320 Delta Flight history →	RSW 12:24	JFK 15:32	17%	9%	8.3%	78%
B6 1530 JetBlue Flight history →	RSW 12:06	JFK 14:59	25%	12%	9.4%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON