tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–32% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 379 Delta Flight history → RSW 11:11 LGA 14:00 24% 9% 5.6% 76%
DL 2310 Delta Flight history → RSW 19:30 LGA 22:34 32% 14% 6.2% 64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → LGA 10:41DL 513 5h 06m 96% 83%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 05:10 → MDW 07:00WN 1243 2h 50m Chicago MDW 09:50 → LGA 12:55WN 4044 7h 45m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 5h 57m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 6h 47m 99% 78%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 05:55 → STL 07:25WN 3471 3h 35m St Louis STL 11:00 → LGA 14:25WN 1373 8h 30m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → RSW 07:00 → ORD 09:23UA 1554 1h 37m Chicago ORD 11:00 → LGA 14:23UA 1775 7h 23m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → RSW 07:00 → IAH 08:33UA 2773 1h 14m Houston IAH 09:47 → LGA 14:29UA 678 7h 29m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:15 → ORD 08:33AA 803 1h 47m Chicago ORD 10:20 → LGA 13:34AA 388 7h 19m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RSW 14:05 → DCA 16:37AA 2448 49m Washington DCA 17:26 → LGA 18:57AA 4685 · flown by Republic 4h 52m 58% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON