tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4872 at 06:15, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4872 Southwest Flight history → RSW 06:15 MCO 07:15 3% 1% 4.3% 100%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → RSW 05:55 → STL 07:25WN 3471 2h 30m St Louis STL 09:55 → MCO 13:15WN 3947 7h 20m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213 4h 21m 96% 73%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 06:05 → BWI 08:30WN 3463 2h 00m Baltimore BWI 10:30 → MCO 12:50WN 1171 6h 45m 100% 70%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 05:10 → MDW 07:00WN 1243 1h 00m Chicago MDW 08:00 → MCO 11:35WN 2817 6h 25m 95% 69%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 5h 15m 98% 68%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:22 → CLT 08:20AA 1097 1h 49m Charlotte CLT 10:09 → MCO 11:57AA 2074 5h 35m 96% 68%
UnitedDetails → RSW 07:00 → ORD 09:23UA 1554 1h 37m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MCO 15:03UA 2008 8h 03m 99% 67%
UnitedDetails → RSW 06:02 → EWR 08:59UA 2455 2h 11m Newark EWR 11:10 → MCO 14:03UA 2396 8h 01m 100% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RSW 14:25 → DFW 16:26AA 2438 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:18 → MCO 21:10AA 2974 6h 45m 66% 33%
AmericanDetails → RSW 14:05 → DCA 16:37AA 2448 48m Washington DCA 17:25 → MCO 19:56AA 2139 5h 51m 57% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON