Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2219 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2219 RSW 07:00 → MSP 09:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 402 RSW 18:15 → MSP 20:50 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2219 Delta Flight history →	RSW 07:00	MSP 09:30	4%	2%	3.9%	93%
DL 2400 Delta Flight history →	RSW 14:32	MSP 17:04	19%	9%	10.2%	77%
DL 402 Delta Flight history →	RSW 18:15	MSP 20:50	22%	10%	6.1%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	RSW 05:55 → STL 07:25WN 3471	50m St Louis	STL 08:15 → MSP 09:45WN 3961	4h 50m	93%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON