Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1554 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 1554 RSW 07:00 → ORD 09:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 2437 RSW 17:24 → ORD 19:54 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1554 United Flight history →	RSW 07:00	ORD 09:23	6%	2%	3.8%	96%
AA 803 American Flight history →	RSW 06:15	ORD 08:33	6%	2%	4.7%	100%
UA 2494 United Flight history →	RSW 12:28	ORD 14:53	15%	7%	7.3%	89%
AA 2433 American Flight history →	RSW 11:35	ORD 13:52	20%	6%	5.4%	89%
UA 2832 United Flight history →	RSW 16:39	ORD 19:00	23%	9%	6.3%	63%
AA 2437 American Flight history →	RSW 17:24	ORD 19:54	34%	11%	10.2%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON