Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1240 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1240 RSW 07:01 → PHL 09:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2439 RSW 14:47 → PHL 17:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1240 American Flight history →	RSW 07:01	PHL 09:45	7%	3%	5.6%	90%
AA 2445 American Flight history →	RSW 12:06	PHL 14:54	26%	10%	9.0%	79%
AA 2439 American Flight history →	RSW 14:47	PHL 17:40	30%	15%	11.1%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON