tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3470 at 16:45, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3470 Southwest Flight history → RSW 16:45 PIT 19:15 33% 14% 6.4% 35%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → RSW 05:55 → STL 07:25WN 3471 2h 40m St Louis STL 10:05 → PIT 12:40WN 3971 6h 45m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:15 → ORD 08:33AA 803 1h 12m Chicago ORD 09:45 → PIT 12:31AA 4484 · flown by Republic 6h 16m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 06:05 → BWI 08:30WN 3463 2h 10m Baltimore BWI 10:40 → PIT 11:45WN 1052 5h 40m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → RSW 07:00 → ORD 09:23UA 1554 3h 17m Chicago ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic 8h 23m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → PIT 10:45DL 1363 5h 10m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 6h 07m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → RSW 07:00 → IAH 08:33UA 2773 3h 27m Houston IAH 12:00 → PIT 15:56UA 315 8h 56m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → RSW 11:59 → IAD 14:30UA 2054 3h 00m Dulles IAD 17:30 → PIT 18:40UA 3579 · flown by Republic 6h 41m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RSW 12:15 → EWR 15:12UA 2624 48m Newark EWR 16:00 → PIT 17:37UA 3591 · flown by Republic 5h 22m 62% 49%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 18:55 → BWI 21:30WN 4294 55m Baltimore BWI 22:25 → PIT 23:35WN 4164 4h 40m 67% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON