tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3471 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3471 Southwest Flight history → RSW 05:55 STL 07:25 3% 1% 3.4% 95%
WN 3472 Southwest Flight history → RSW 19:20 STL 20:55 30% 12% 7.2% 49%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → RSW 05:10 → MDW 07:00WN 1243 50m Chicago MDW 07:50 → STL 09:10WN 2900 5h 00m 95% 86%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 06:05 → BWI 08:30WN 3463 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 09:35 → STL 10:50WN 1110 5h 45m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 5h 08m 96% 84%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 06:25 → DEN 08:20WN 1739 1h 45m Denver DEN 10:05 → STL 13:20WN 1753 7h 55m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 32m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → RSW 06:02 → EWR 08:59UA 2455 54m Newark EWR 09:53 → STL 11:41UA 3630 · flown by Republic 6h 39m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:22 → CLT 08:20AA 1097 2h 40m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → STL 11:55AA 2717 6h 33m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → RSW 07:00 → ORD 09:23UA 1554 1h 17m Chicago ORD 10:40 → STL 12:11UA 1355 6h 11m 97% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RSW 16:39 → ORD 19:00UA 2832 55m Chicago ORD 19:55 → STL 21:26UA 2144 5h 47m 73% 56%
AmericanDetails → RSW 15:59 → CLT 18:05AA 2444 54m Charlotte CLT 18:59 → STL 20:03AA 2686 5h 04m 73% 52%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 16:45 → PIT 19:15WN 3470 1h 00m Pittsburgh PIT 20:15 → STL 21:00WN 3387 5h 15m 67% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON