tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 285 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 285 Southwest Flight history → SAN 09:00 ABQ 11:50 14% 4% 0.7% 69%
WN 4839 Southwest Flight history → SAN 20:20 ABQ 23:15 36% 11% 0.8% 51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:40 → PHX 08:10WN 3447 2h 05m Phoenix PHX 10:15 → ABQ 12:30WN 106 4h 50m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:35 → LAS 08:15WN 2970 2h 30m Las Vegas LAS 10:45 → ABQ 13:20WN 2175 5h 45m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 14:10 → ABQ 15:54DL 3820 · flown by SkyWest 5h 08m 90% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m Los Angeles LAX 15:00 → ABQ 18:07DL 4091 · flown by SkyWest 6h 13m 98% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:30 → DEN 09:55WN 3493 1h 25m Denver DEN 11:20 → ABQ 12:40WN 170 5h 10m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 1h 07m Denver DEN 11:15 → ABQ 12:37UA 1402 5h 02m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 87% 78%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830 1h 00m San Francisco SFO 09:04 → ABQ 12:44UA 5401 · flown by SkyWest 5h 24m 88% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 46m Salt Lake City SLC 20:45 → ABQ 22:30DL 3729 · flown by SkyWest 4h 29m 64% 58%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 16:20 → AUS 21:15WN 3476 1h 10m Austin AUS 22:25 → ABQ 23:20WN 249 6h 00m 63% 46%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 16:25 → HOU 21:45WN 3212 1h 00m Houston HOU 22:45 → ABQ 23:55WN 4703 6h 30m 64% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON