Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 729 SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 828 SAN 21:30 → ATL 05:01 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 729 Delta Flight history →	SAN 06:15	ATL 13:49	12%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 819 Delta Flight history →	SAN 22:30	ATL 05:50	13%	3%	0.9%	95%
DL 1179 Delta Flight history →	SAN 08:00	ATL 15:33	18%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 725 Delta Flight history →	SAN 10:36	ATL 18:11	18%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 540 Delta Flight history →	SAN 14:18	ATL 22:00	19%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 712 Delta Flight history →	SAN 12:59	ATL 20:41	20%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 828 Delta Flight history →	SAN 21:30	ATL 05:01	20%	3%	0.9%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SAN 06:30 → DEN 09:55WN 3493	50m Denver	DEN 10:45 → ATL 15:35WN 2258	6h 05m	88%	65%
American Details →	SAN 07:15 → DFW 12:30AA 373	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:31 → ATL 16:42AA 1376	6h 27m	88%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON