Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 281 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 281 SAN 06:30 → AUS 11:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2328 SAN 14:55 → AUS 19:50 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 9% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 281 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 06:30	AUS 11:35	9%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 3475 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 07:45	AUS 12:35	21%	4%	0.6%	51%
AS 3292 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 17:48	AUS 23:00	26%	9%	0.9%	81%
AS 3085 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 09:04	AUS 14:19	29%	6%	0.8%	90%worse than usual
AS 3250 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 14:07	AUS 19:19	30%	12%	0.8%	60%
WN 3477 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 20:30	AUS 01:30	35%	13%	0.7%	28%
WN 3476 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 16:20	AUS 21:15	38%	16%	0.6%	0%
WN 2328 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 14:55	AUS 19:50	38%	14%	0.6%	9%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON