Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3896 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 3896 SAN 06:40 → BWI 14:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 4148 SAN 14:10 → BWI 22:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 21% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3896 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 06:40	BWI 14:50	11%	2%	0.8%	86%
WN 3390 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 11:15	BWI 19:20	28%	5%	0.8%	74%
WN 3486 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:40	BWI 05:35	29%	6%	0.9%	65%
WN 4148 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 14:10	BWI 22:10	35%	9%	0.8%	21%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SAN 06:40 → PHX 08:10WN 3447	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 09:30 → BWI 16:55WN 1039	7h 15m	95%	73%
Southwest Details →	SAN 11:55 → LAS 13:20WN 3508	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 14:35 → BWI 22:10WN 2205	7h 15m	76%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON