tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1133 at 12:10, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1133 Southwest Flight history → SAN 12:10 BZN 15:55 27% 6% 0.7% 58%
AS 2221 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SAN 11:38 BZN 15:24 42% 10% 1.9% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 13:17 → BZN 14:47DL 2946 7h 27m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 3h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 6h 22m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 3h 36m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 7h 58m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:30 → DEN 09:55WN 3493 2h 35m Denver DEN 12:30 → BZN 14:10WN 4219 6h 40m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 2h 58m Denver DEN 15:15 → BZN 17:10UA 6030 · flown by SkyWest 7h 25m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 19m Denver DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347 7h 41m 96% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 10:35 → DEN 13:55WN 3495 2h 55m Denver DEN 16:50 → BZN 18:35WN 4790 7h 00m 100% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399 1h 01m Portland PDX 10:30 → BZN 13:10AS 2022 · flown by Horizon 5h 20m 90% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 1715 48m Denver DEN 15:15 → BZN 17:10UA 6030 · flown by SkyWest 5h 15m 60% 51%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 11:04 → SFO 12:51AS 3347 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 13:56 → BZN 17:11AS 2062 · flown by Horizon 5h 07m 67% 20%
UnitedDetails → SAN 09:26 → SFO 11:12UA 1113 48m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → BZN 15:21UA 562 4h 55m 16% 11%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON