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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1651 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–17%.

Safest bet that day AA 1651 SAN 06:50 → CLT 14:49 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2465 SAN 13:19 → CLT 21:20 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 1651 American Flight history → SAN 06:50 CLT 14:49 13% 3% 0.8% 86%
AA 2468 American Flight history → SAN 22:28 CLT 06:15 14% 3% 1.0% 82%
AA 1860 American Flight history → SAN 21:25 CLT 05:12 17% 4% 1.0% 86%
AA 2465 American Flight history → SAN 13:19 CLT 21:20 29% 8% 0.8% 71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031 7h 02m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:41 → PHX 11:09AA 2461 1h 06m Phoenix PHX 12:15 → CLT 19:29AA 2923 6h 48m 78% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON