tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Phoenix, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 11% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4808 Southwest Flight history → SAN 16:30 CMH 23:55 37% 12% 0.8% 8%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492 3h 40m Detroit DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic 9h 19m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:40 → ORD 13:09UA 1069 3h 25m Chicago ORD 16:34 → CMH 19:13UA 3570 · flown by Republic 9h 33m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → SAN 07:30 → ORD 13:59AA 1261 3h 47m Chicago ORD 17:46 → CMH 20:25AA 4337 · flown by Republic 9h 55m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAN 12:59 → ATL 20:41DL 712 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 23:05 → CMH 00:44 +1DL 1501 8h 45m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 15:55 → CMH 17:34DL 2280 8h 19m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 31m Minneapolis MSP 15:35 → CMH 18:28DL 2113 9h 08m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:15 → ORD 12:47AA 518 2h 28m Chicago ORD 15:15 → CMH 17:49AA 3361 · flown by Envoy 8h 34m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 2h 53m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 8h 49m 94% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 53m Chicago ORD 17:45 → CMH 20:24UA 3674 · flown by Republic 6h 49m 66% 57%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 12:30 → BNA 18:30WN 4147 50m Nashville BNA 19:20 → CMH 21:45WN 850 6h 15m 60% 40%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:35 → MIA 20:54AA 2979 51m Miami MIA 21:45 → CMH 00:37 +1AA 3550 · flown by Envoy 9h 02m 11% 9%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON