tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1222 at 12:55, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1222 Southwest Flight history → SAN 12:55 COS 16:20 36% 10% 0.7% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Colorado Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Colorado Springs is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 3h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 15:51 → COS 17:35DL 4449 · flown by SkyWest 6h 49m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → SAN 16:07 → DEN 19:39UA 682 3h 30m Denver DEN 23:09 → COS 23:59UA 4745 · flown by SkyWest 6h 52m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 3h 22m Denver DEN 13:30 → COS 14:27UA 4775 · flown by SkyWest 6h 52m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 1715 2h 28m Denver DEN 16:55 → COS 17:52UA 5308 · flown by SkyWest 5h 57m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 3h 18m Denver DEN 15:35 → COS 16:32UA 5546 · flown by SkyWest 6h 47m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 20:59 → COS 22:41DL 3788 · flown by SkyWest 4h 40m 80% 74%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 44m Denver DEN 19:50 → COS 20:46UA 5669 · flown by SkyWest 7h 13m 96% 71%
AmericanDetails → SAN 07:15 → DFW 12:30AA 373 3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:37 → COS 16:43AA 4956 · flown by SkyWest 8h 28m 96% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 16:07 → DEN 19:39UA 682 51m Denver DEN 20:30 → COS 21:26UA 4744 · flown by SkyWest 4h 19m 61% 45%
AmericanDetails → SAN 15:08 → DFW 20:30AA 2459 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:25 → COS 22:23AA 790 6h 15m 65% 44%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 20:05 → LAS 21:30WN 1169 55m Las Vegas LAS 22:25 → COS 01:20 +1WN 2214 4h 15m 54% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON