Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3906 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 3906 SAN 06:20 → DAL 11:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 3492 SAN 18:10 → DAL 23:15 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3906 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 06:20	DAL 11:25	6%	1%	0.8%	89%
WN 4751 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:10	DAL 13:15	15%	3%	0.8%	86%
WN 3582 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 15:15	DAL 20:25	30%	9%	0.8%	51%
WN 4097 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 13:55	DAL 19:05	31%	7%	0.8%	23%
WN 3492 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 18:10	DAL 23:15	36%	12%	1.0%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON