tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 14 Alaska Flight history → SAN 12:42 DCA 21:00 37% 7% 0.9% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 50m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 9h 08m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:15 → IAH 11:42UA 2760 2h 38m Houston IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625 9h 16m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 2h 33m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 8h 49m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 25m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 9h 01m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:40 → ORD 13:09UA 1069 3h 51m Chicago ORD 17:00 → DCA 20:10UA 456 10h 30m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:13 → IAH 15:40UA 2165 2h 25m Houston IAH 18:05 → DCA 22:15UA 1627 9h 02m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 20m 94% 77%
AmericanDetails → SAN 19:15 → PHX 20:44AA 2466 3h 08m Phoenix PHX 23:52 → DCA 07:14 +1AA 1542 8h 59m 94% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:07 → DFW 16:28AA 2476 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:15 → DCA 21:31AA 472 7h 24m 62% 45%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:44 → SFO 13:30UA 2428 48m San Francisco SFO 14:18 → DCA 22:30UA 2386 7h 46m 57% 43%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 13:30 → STL 19:05WN 3552 50m St Louis STL 19:55 → DCA 22:55WN 3908 6h 25m 62% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON