Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3493 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 3493 SAN 06:30 → DEN 09:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 3497 SAN 14:55 → DEN 18:20 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3493 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 06:30	DEN 09:55	7%	1%	0.6%	88%
UA 2368 United Flight history →	SAN 06:35	DEN 10:08	11%	2%	0.6%	96%
AS 1618 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:00	DEN 10:33	16%	3%	0.8%	98%worse than usual
UA 2476 United Flight history →	SAN 08:45	DEN 12:17	19%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 519 United Flight history →	SAN 18:55	DEN 22:27	19%	7%	0.7%	88%
AS 1619 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 20:01	DEN 23:30	19%	5%	0.9%	96%worse than usual
F9 2818 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 06:25	DEN 10:03	19%	5%	1.1%	86%
UA 1715 United Flight history →	SAN 10:55	DEN 14:27	22%	5%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
UA 1565 United Flight history →	SAN 12:33	DEN 16:06	23%	7%	0.6%	87%
WN 3495 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 10:35	DEN 13:55	27%	4%	0.6%	68%
UA 682 United Flight history →	SAN 16:07	DEN 19:39	28%	7%	0.6%	77%
WN 3494 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 09:20	DEN 12:45	29%	4%	0.6%	70%
WN 4151 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 17:20	DEN 20:40	34%	9%	0.6%	45%
AS 3012 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:45	DEN 19:18	34%	10%	0.9%	37%
F9 4990 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 10:00	DEN 13:41	34%	9%	1.3%	81%worse than usual
WN 3496 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 13:20	DEN 16:55	37%	8%	0.6%	25%
WN 4152 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 19:40	DEN 23:05	39%	10%	0.7%	42%
WN 3497 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 14:55	DEN 18:20	42%	9%	0.6%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON