Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2535 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2535 SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 380 SAN 14:25 → DFW 19:42 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2535 American Flight history →	SAN 06:20	DFW 11:35	12%	4%	1.4%	85%
AA 373 American Flight history →	SAN 07:15	DFW 12:30	13%	5%	1.4%	89%
AA 1055 American Flight history →	SAN 08:00	DFW 13:10	19%	6%	1.3%	84%
F9 1426 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 06:35	DFW 12:05	23%	7%	1.3%	79%
AA 2687 American Flight history →	SAN 09:50	DFW 15:10	24%	7%	1.4%	84%
AA 1467 American Flight history →	SAN 12:20	DFW 17:40	25%	9%	1.5%	78%
AA 2476 American Flight history →	SAN 11:07	DFW 16:28	26%	9%	1.4%	73%
AS 545 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 09:52	DFW 15:13	26%	5%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
AA 2458 American Flight history →	SAN 18:45	DFW 23:53	27%	10%	1.8%	49%
AA 2456 American Flight history →	SAN 13:55	DFW 19:15	27%	10%	1.4%	74%
AA 2485 American Flight history →	SAN 16:32	DFW 21:49	30%	11%	1.3%	41%
AA 2459 American Flight history →	SAN 15:08	DFW 20:30	30%	11%	1.2%	42%
AS 380 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 14:25	DFW 19:42	31%	8%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON