Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 754 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 754 SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 492 SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 754 Delta Flight history →	SAN 06:15	DTW 13:48	12%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 764 Delta Flight history →	SAN 22:15	DTW 05:43	16%	4%	0.8%	90%
DL 2172 Delta Flight history →	SAN 14:40	DTW 22:15	22%	5%	0.7%	84%
DL 492 Delta Flight history →	SAN 11:37	DTW 19:10	25%	4%	0.7%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	51m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → DTW 15:39DL 1519	6h 19m	85%	75%
Delta Details →	SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	6h 29m	84%	70%
American Details →	SAN 12:46 → PHX 14:16AA 2477	1h 14m Phoenix	PHX 15:30 → DTW 22:21AA 3140	6h 35m	83%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON