tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3498 at 20:10, with a 40% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3498 Southwest Flight history → SAN 20:10 ELP 23:05 40% 13% 0.9% 24%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 1h 37m Denver DEN 11:45 → ELP 13:35UA 792 6h 00m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:20 → DAL 11:25WN 3906 1h 40m Dallas DAL 13:05 → ELP 13:45WN 4396 6h 25m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:13 → IAH 15:40UA 2165 1h 18m Houston IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 6h 49m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → PHX 07:54AA 625 50m Phoenix PHX 08:44 → ELP 11:17AA 4978 · flown by SkyWest 3h 57m 82% 71%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 14m Denver DEN 19:20 → ELP 21:11UA 333 7h 38m 96% 70%
FrontierDetails → SAN 10:00 → DEN 13:41F9 4990 2h 29m Denver DEN 16:10 → ELP 18:04F9 2261 7h 04m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → SAN 15:10 → IAH 20:31UA 618 1h 09m Houston IAH 21:40 → ELP 22:44UA 4010 · flown by Mesa 6h 34m 84% 69%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 07:45 → AUS 12:35WN 3475 2h 35m Austin AUS 15:10 → ELP 15:45WN 946 7h 00m 100% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 19:15 → PHX 20:44AA 2466 1h 01m Phoenix PHX 21:45 → ELP 23:59AA 3874 · flown by Envoy 3h 44m 64% 43%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 10:09 → SEA 13:13AS 1477 55m Seattle SEA 14:08 → ELP 18:36AS 2191 · flown by Horizon 7h 27m 59% 34%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 16:25 → HOU 21:45WN 3212 50m Houston HOU 22:35 → ELP 23:30WN 1980 6h 05m 57% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON