Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2381 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2381 SAN 06:40 → EWR 15:18 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest UA 1827 SAN 14:24 → EWR 22:59 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2381 United Flight history →	SAN 06:40	EWR 15:18	13%	3%	0.9%	80%
UA 427 United Flight history →	SAN 22:30	EWR 06:53	16%	3%	1.3%	84%
UA 327 United Flight history →	SAN 21:05	EWR 05:31	23%	5%	1.2%	79%
AS 297 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:55	EWR 16:36	25%	6%	1.6%	81%
UA 1827 United Flight history →	SAN 14:24	EWR 22:59	32%	10%	0.9%	88%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SAN 18:55 → DEN 22:27UA 519	1h 32m Denver	DEN 23:59 → EWR 05:40 +1UA 1745	7h 45m	92%	81%
United Details →	SAN 06:20 → LAX 07:21UA 1006	59m Los Angeles	LAX 08:20 → EWR 16:45UA 2096	7h 25m	91%	77%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033	7h 34m	94%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON