Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3464 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3464 SAN 08:30 → FAT 09:55 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 948 SAN 21:45 → FAT 23:10 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3464 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:30	FAT 09:55	10%	3%	0.8%	98%
AS 3133 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 17:58	FAT 19:21	25%	11%	1.3%	67%
AS 3472 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 21:57	FAT 23:22	26%	9%	1.6%	75%
AS 3389 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 14:19	FAT 15:42	31%	11%	1.3%	66%
WN 948 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:45	FAT 23:10	33%	12%	1.1%	55%
AS 2208 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 08:44	FAT 10:05	22%	4%	1.9%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON