tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2186 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SAN 08:23 FCA 12:30 5% 3% 0.0% 95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kalispell on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kalispell is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → FCA 12:43DL 3804 · flown by SkyWest 5h 28m 96% 88%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399 1h 37m Portland PDX 11:06 → FCA 13:30AS 2044 · flown by Horizon 5h 40m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 2h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → FCA 17:29DL 3798 · flown by SkyWest 6h 43m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → PHX 07:54AA 625 1h 50m Phoenix PHX 09:44 → FCA 13:49AA 3852 · flown by Envoy 6h 29m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 3h 45m Denver DEN 13:53 → FCA 16:11UA 2246 8h 36m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → LAX 07:21UA 1006 1h 07m Los Angeles LAX 08:28 → FCA 12:27UA 5728 · flown by SkyWest 5h 07m 92% 77%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 07:18 → SEA 10:26AS 512 3h 07m Seattle SEA 13:33 → FCA 15:54AS 2105 · flown by Horizon 7h 36m 96% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 15:16 → SEA 18:14AS 1381 3h 21m Seattle SEA 21:35 → FCA 23:59AS 2121 · flown by Horizon 7h 43m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 15:19 → MSP 20:58DL 2191 47m Minneapolis MSP 21:45 → FCA 23:43DL 1602 7h 24m 67% 55%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 17:35 → SEA 20:35AS 417 1h 00m Seattle SEA 21:35 → FCA 23:59AS 2121 · flown by Horizon 5h 24m 60% 46%
UnitedDetails → SAN 09:26 → SFO 11:12UA 1113 48m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → FCA 15:30UA 5577 · flown by SkyWest 5h 04m 16% 12%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON