tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3500 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3500 Southwest Flight history → SAN 08:25 GEG 11:05 15% 3% 0.7% 94%
AS 566 Alaska Flight history → SAN 20:22 GEG 23:07 26% 6% 0.8% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 3h 38m Denver DEN 13:46 → GEG 15:11UA 324 8h 36m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:45 → SMF 08:35WN 3544 2h 25m Sacramento SMF 11:00 → GEG 12:50WN 302 6h 05m 100% 86%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576 3h 47m Portland PDX 17:30 → GEG 18:44AS 3052 · flown by SkyWest 7h 40m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 2h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452 5h 57m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503 6h 22m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAN 13:36 → SEA 16:32DL 2533 3h 25m Seattle SEA 19:57 → GEG 21:13DL 3677 · flown by SkyWest 7h 37m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 3h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 23:15 → GEG 23:55DL 1466 6h 54m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 16:09 → SFO 17:49UA 2117 2h 56m San Francisco SFO 20:45 → GEG 23:04UA 5693 · flown by SkyWest 6h 55m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576 47m Portland PDX 14:30 → GEG 15:41AS 3262 · flown by SkyWest 4h 37m 62% 54%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 07:18 → SEA 10:26AS 512 57m Seattle SEA 11:23 → GEG 12:29AS 449 5h 11m 59% 37%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 17:35 → SEA 20:35AS 417 55m Seattle SEA 21:30 → GEG 22:36AS 2071 · flown by Horizon 5h 01m 44% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON