Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1865 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 1865 SAN 08:40 → HNL 11:40 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 815 SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1865 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:40	HNL 11:40	24%	4%	0.6%	86%
AS 894 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 17:16	HNL 20:22	30%	8%	1.9%	76%
AS 94 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 15:57	HNL 19:03	34%	8%	1.9%	77%worse than usual
WN 2329 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 18:30	HNL 21:30	38%	10%	0.7%	58%
AS 815 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 09:07	HNL 12:18	42%	7%	1.9%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830	1h 16m San Francisco	SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175	8h 23m	98%	83%
United Details →	SAN 06:20 → LAX 07:21UA 1006	1h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 09:05 → HNL 11:53UA 1158	8h 33m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest	1h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	8h 49m	97%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON