Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2760 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 2760 SAN 06:15 → IAH 11:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 2237 SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2760 United Flight history →	SAN 06:15	IAH 11:42	9%	2%	0.8%	89%
UA 2165 United Flight history →	SAN 10:13	IAH 15:40	16%	4%	0.7%	89%
UA 618 United Flight history →	SAN 15:10	IAH 20:31	20%	7%	0.6%	66%
UA 2237 United Flight history →	SAN 11:58	IAH 17:25	21%	6%	0.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON