tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 06:40, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3505 Southwest Flight history → SAN 13:35 IND 20:35 34% 10% 0.6% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 2h 12m Detroit DTW 16:00 → IND 17:18DL 5826 · flown by Republic 8h 03m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:15 → PHL 14:40AA 2955 3h 39m Philadelphia PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45AA 4637 · flown by Republic 11h 30m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → SAN 13:07 → ORD 19:54AA 811 2h 35m Chicago ORD 22:29 → IND 00:50 +1AA 4363 · flown by Republic 8h 43m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:40 → ORD 13:09UA 1069 3h 35m Chicago ORD 16:44 → IND 19:01UA 3418 · flown by Republic 9h 21m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Los Angeles LAX 09:05 → IND 16:10DL 861 6h 55m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 41m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → IND 18:22DL 1456 9h 02m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 12:59 → ATL 20:41DL 712 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657 8h 42m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 15:45 → IND 17:22DL 3126 8h 07m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SAN 18:35 → SEA 21:35AS 1431 1h 04m Seattle SEA 22:39 → IND 05:44 +1AS 624 8h 09m 62% 43%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 13:55 → DAL 19:05WN 4097 50m Dallas DAL 19:55 → IND 23:05WN 2250 6h 10m 64% 42%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3497 55m Denver DEN 19:15 → IND 23:50WN 1211 5h 55m 55% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON