Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 367 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 367 SAN 07:29 → JFK 16:19 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 36 SAN 14:15 → JFK 22:56 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 367 Delta Flight history →	SAN 07:29	JFK 16:19	16%	5%	1.1%	87%
AS 24 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:00	JFK 15:49	17%	3%	1.0%	89%
DL 709 Delta Flight history →	SAN 21:55	JFK 06:23	19%	4%	1.5%	87%
B6 1190 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 20:30	JFK 05:04	27%	8%	2.7%	88%worse than usual
DL 683 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:05	JFK 22:04	30%	9%	0.9%	76%
B6 190 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 11:51	JFK 20:30	32%	9%	1.4%	81%worse than usual
AS 36 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 14:15	JFK 22:56	33%	8%	0.9%	80%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	SAN 06:20 → PHX 07:54AA 625	1h 21m Phoenix	PHX 09:15 → JFK 17:28AA 2689	8h 08m	93%	76%
Delta Details →	SAN 19:58 → LAX 21:13DL 4087 · flown by SkyWest	1h 32m Los Angeles	LAX 22:45 → JFK 07:03 +1DL 676	8h 05m	92%	71%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	50m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	7h 40m	84%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON