tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via LAX, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 222 Alaska Flight history → SAN 09:12 KOA 12:15 21% 5% 0.7% 96%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → LAX 07:21UA 1006 1h 39m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → KOA 11:42UA 2373 8h 22m 95% 85%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:45 → SMF 08:35WN 3544 1h 25m Sacramento SMF 10:00 → KOA 12:20WN 3783 8h 35m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 2h 07m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 12h 02m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:35 → LAS 08:15WN 2970 1h 15m Las Vegas LAS 09:30 → KOA 12:50WN 4452 9h 15m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763 3h 49m San Francisco SFO 19:08 → KOA 21:45UA 731 11h 06m 98% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 08:40 → HNL 11:40WN 1865 1h 35m Honolulu HNL 13:15 → KOA 14:10WN 561 8h 30m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → PHX 07:54AA 625 2h 46m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 10h 46m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:44 → SFO 13:30UA 2428 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 16:55 → KOA 19:31UA 1723 10h 47m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SAN 07:18 → SEA 10:26AS 512 1h 01m Seattle SEA 11:27 → KOA 14:35AS 204 10h 17m 70% 51%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815 56m Honolulu HNL 13:14 → KOA 14:02AS 1108 7h 55m 52% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON