Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2970 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 2970 SAN 06:35 → LAS 08:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4160 SAN 19:00 → LAS 20:25 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2970 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 06:35	LAS 08:15	5%	1%	1.2%	96%
WN 2310 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 07:45	LAS 09:05	16%	3%	1.2%	70%
WN 2695 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 09:45	LAS 11:10	27%	5%	1.1%	81%
WN 3510 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 22:40	LAS 00:15	30%	9%	1.2%	100%worse than usual
WN 3507 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 11:05	LAS 12:30	33%	6%	1.2%	69%
WN 2183 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 12:55	LAS 14:20	38%	10%	1.3%	48%
WN 3508 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 11:55	LAS 13:20	38%	8%	1.2%	53%
DL 3751 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:50	LAS 17:20	41%	13%	1.2%	82%worse than usual
WN 365 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:25	LAS 22:55	45%	14%	1.2%	54%
WN 1454 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 20:55	LAS 22:15	45%	17%	1.1%	8%
WN 4111 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 16:25	LAS 17:50	46%	16%	1.3%	16%
WN 1169 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 20:05	LAS 21:30	46%	17%	1.4%	20%
WN 2352 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 18:05	LAS 19:30	48%	16%	1.4%	64%worse than usual
F9 1326 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 20:51	LAS 22:21	48%	22%	2.9%	57%
WN 4160 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 19:00	LAS 20:25	48%	17%	1.4%	43%
AS 2281 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 09:05	LAS 10:31	15%	0%	7.7%	85%
AS 2018 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 17:15	LAS 18:41	41%	20%	4.5%	59%
AS 2092 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:13	LAS 17:39	43%	13%	1.5%	57%
AS 2255 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 12:30	LAS 13:58	44%	9%	4.4%	56%
AS 2274 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 20:15	LAS 21:43	65%	31%	5.9%	35%
AS 2305 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 22:02	LAS 23:28	73%	0%	13.3%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON