Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3743 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 3743 SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 4087 SAN 19:58 → LAX 21:13 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3743 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 06:15	LAX 07:35	7%	4%	0.7%	95%
UA 1006 United Flight history →	SAN 06:20	LAX 07:21	8%	3%	0.6%	96%
DL 3716 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 10:54	LAX 12:11	13%	6%	0.7%	91%
UA 5384 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 10:49	LAX 11:58	15%	6%	0.7%	91%
DL 4002 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:00	LAX 16:04	19%	7%	0.7%	73%
UA 5636 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 20:32	LAX 21:45	19%	6%	0.8%	91%
DL 4087 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 19:58	LAX 21:13	21%	8%	0.7%	89%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON