tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via LAX, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 220 Alaska Flight history → SAN 08:05 LIH 11:28 22% 4% 0.8% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → LAX 07:21UA 1006 1h 24m Los Angeles LAX 08:45 → LIH 11:44UA 1295 8h 24m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:44 → SFO 13:30UA 2428 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684 10h 58m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 08:40 → HNL 11:40WN 1865 1h 45m Honolulu HNL 13:25 → LIH 14:15WN 1923 8h 35m 97% 79%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:35 → LAS 08:15WN 2970 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 09:25 → LIH 12:45WN 2262 9h 10m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 1h 52m Denver DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307 12h 02m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Los Angeles LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428 9h 47m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830 1h 01m San Francisco SFO 09:05 → LIH 11:50UA 1384 8h 30m 88% 78%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → PHX 07:54AA 625 2h 55m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697 11h 16m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SAN 07:18 → SEA 10:26AS 512 1h 02m Seattle SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258 10h 22m 72% 49%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 17:16 → HNL 20:22AS 894 56m Honolulu HNL 21:18 → LIH 21:59AS 1173 7h 43m 58% 40%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815 57m Honolulu HNL 13:15 → LIH 13:58AS 1073 7h 51m 53% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON